A look back at my MLB predictions, Part I.

Now that the All-Star break has come and gone, it is time to look back at my predictions and how they relate to reality. Part 1 is the NL, part 2 will be the AL. Remember, all predictions correct

NL East

New York Mets
Predicted: 1st, 94-68
Current: 1st, 51-40


Philadelphia Phillies
Predicted: 2nd (WC), 92-70
Current: 3rd, 46-45 5GB NLE, 4.5 GB WC

Florida Marlins
Predicted: 3rd, 81-81
Current: 4th, 44-48 7.5 GB NLE, 7 GB WC

Atlanta Braves
Predicted: 4th, 79-83
Current: 2nd, 50-42 1.5 GB NLE, 1 GB WC

Washington Nationals
Predicted: 5th, 63-99
Current: 5th, 37-54 14 GB NLE, 13.5 GB WC

Analysis:

Not too bad with the predictions here. Washington is about as bad as predicted, and the Phillies are definitely in the playoff race. NY is leading the division, so I'm 1 for 1 so far on division leaders. The only real problem was Atlanta, who is having a much better season than I predicted.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs
Predicted: 1st, 91-71
Current: 2nd, 47-43 3.5 GB NLC, 3 GB WC


Milwaukee Brewers
Predicted: 2nd, 89-73
Current: 1st, 51-40

St. Louis Cardinals
Predicted: 3rd, 84-78
Current: 3rd, 41-47 8.5 GB NLC, 8 GB WC

Houston Astros
Predicted: 4th, 80-82
Current: 5th, 39-53 12.5 GB NLC, 12 GB WC

Cincinnati Reds
Predicted: 5th, 73-89
Current: 6th, 37-55 14.5 GB NLC, 14 GB WC

Pittsburgh Pirates
Predicted: 6th, 65-97
Current: 4th, 40-51 11 GB NLC, 10.5 GB WC

Analysis:

I was right that the Cubs and the Brewers would be the class of the division. However, the rest of the division is rather wrong. Only one of the six teams are currently in the position I picked them to be. If the Cubs hadn't turned it around after the slow start, this prediction would have been really bad.

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers
Predicted: 1st, 87-75
Current: 1st, 52-40


San Diego Padres
Predicted: 2nd, 85-77
Current: 2nd, 50-40 1GB NLW, WC

Arizona Diamondbacks
Predicted: 3rd, 81-81
Current: 3rd, 49-44 3.5 GB NLW, 2.5 GB WC

Colorado Rockies
Predicted: 4th, 77-85
Current: 4th, 45-46 6.5 GB NLW, 5.5 GB WC

San Francisco Giants
Predicted: 5th, 75-87
Current: 5th, 38-51 12.5 GB NLW, 11.5 GB WC

Analysis:

The NL West has shaped up pretty much as I had predicted. The Giants are pretty bad, the Rockies are mediocre, and the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Padres are fighting for the top spot. The only real problem I had with this division was that they are over-performing my predictions.

All in all, it could have been worse. I predicted two of the three division winners, and got one division entirely correct. Naturally, this analysis is meaningless at this point, as the season is still going.

The A.L. will be coming shortly.